By Lee Allen
U.S.-Baltic Relations Ahead of the Midterm Elections
Amid political challenges to the trans-Atlantic relationship, the U.S. Congress has remained a positive contributor towards building U.S.-Baltic security with accomplishments including funding the Baltic Security Initiative (BSI), passing provisions in support of U.S. force posture in Europe, and conducting oversight on the implementation of trans-atlantic security policy more broadly. The future of Baltic support in the U.S. Congress will depend upon addressing the challenges that come with midterm elections, including an unusually high number of retirements and challenges to incumbents this cycle.
Midterm Election Impact on the Baltic Caucus
The House Baltic Caucus and the Senate Baltic Freedom Caucus is an informal political framework that communicates to the public which members of Congress work on U.S.-Baltic security issues. Internally, a Caucus helps to coordinate the political strategy and activities for a specific issue. With 156 members in the House Baltic Caucus and 40 members in the Senate Baltic Freedom Caucus, the Baltics have become the largest regional/national caucus in Congress.
23 members of the House Baltic Caucus are retiring or have lost their primary, with a further 21 members in a competitive general election campaign (defined here as polling within six points of their challenger). In the Senate, seven Senators are retiring or lost a primary, while two additional members of the Caucus, Senators Blackburn and Klobuchar, are running for Governor in their respective states and are unlikely to remain in the Senate.
The unique challenge for Congressional support for the Baltics this cycle is not only the number of caucus members lost, but the loss of leadership in both legislative chambers. Senator Dick Durbin, co-chair of the Senate Baltic Freedom Caucus and Congressman Don Bacon, Co-Chair of the House Baltic Caucus are both retiring at the end of the year. Both Senator Durbin and Rep. Bacon led efforts in their respective chambers to support security assistance to the Baltics in the form of the BSI, Baltic related legislation, and efforts for U.S. rotational forces to return to the Baltics. Replacing this leadership is crucial for sustained support to the region.
Other significant retirements for trans-Atlantic security more broadly include Senators Mitch McConnell and Jeanne Shaheen, both of whom held hawkish positions against Russia. Senator McConnell, in his role as Chair of the Appropriations Committee, fought to include security assistance to the Baltics and Ukraine while Senator Shaheen helped to lead the efforts to sanction Russia. Further, the unexpected death of Senator Lindsey Graham is widely considered to be another challenge, as there was no Senator who better communicated European security priorities to the White House. Some knowledge of European security and historic understanding of Russia will be lost with the outgoing generation of Congress members.
Potential Partisan Dynamics in the 120th Congress
The majority of midterm analyses project the Democrats to take the majority in the House of Representatives, with the Senate being a toss up. President Trump’s ability to govern and dictate the legislative agenda will be hamstrung by Democratic control of one or both legislative chambers. This creates potential for continued partisanship and potential vulnerabilities for trans-atlantic security priorities.
However, direct support for the Baltics is less vulnerable to election outcomes as a result of strong bipartisan support relative to other trans-atlantic security issues. For example, BSI has remained funded during the second Trump administration at $200 million in FY26 and an expected funding level of $175 million in FY27. Provisions related to Baltic security and security assistance programs such as the BSI are typically parts of larger pieces of legislation such as the National Defense Authorization Act and defense appropriations bills, rather than stand-alone votes, further insulating the issue from partisan dynamics.
Other trans-atlantic security priorities such as support for Ukraine are likely to have greater vulnerability from partisan politics. Critiques of Ukraine from the administration have a downward impact on how Republican members vote and their outward support of Ukraine. Progressives, in particular newly elected DSA members, will challenge political unity on issues such as sanctions on Russia. The potential success of legislation related to Ukraine will be contingent on the ability of Congress to arrive at a bipartisan security consensus that mitigates the populist elements in both parties.